Predictions

0:41 We think YouTube's next year is about who gets paid and how AI is handled: the doubled Partner Program bar starts on Feb 1, 2027 without a retreat, AI dubbing, AI labels and likeness detection spread to more of the site, and small Premium extras such as the mobile queue go free while Premium itself holds its price until 2028.

These are Vi.ki's own predictions and opinions, not reported facts. Each one says what we base it on and when it can be checked. We will mark each one right or wrong when it resolves.

Will the YouTube Partner Program changes start on Feb 1, 2027?

We think yes: the new thresholds (8,000 watch hours or 20 million Shorts views for new ad-revenue applicants) take effect on Feb 1, 2027 with no delay and no lowering.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Feb 2027.

Why we think so: YouTube announced the change on Aug 10, 2026, almost six months ahead, with a terms deadline of Jan 31, 2027 in YouTube Studio (Partner Program Changes in 2027). Existing partners keep their place and the 500-subscriber fan-funding tier is unchanged, so the people with the loudest voices lose little, which in our view leaves YouTube little reason to back down. The last big threshold change, announced on Jan 16, 2018, took effect on Feb 20, 2018 as planned (YouTube Partner Program).

What would prove us wrong: YouTube Help showing a different date or lower numbers on Feb 1, 2027.

Will YouTube Premium get more expensive?

We think the US price of YouTube Premium for one person stays at $15.99 a month through 2027, and the next rise comes in 2028.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: the US individual price was $13.99 from 2023 until it rose to $15.99 on Apr 10, 2026 (YouTube Premium), a gap of about three years. YouTube has also just added background play and downloads to the cheaper Premium Lite and is taking Lite to every Premium country from Feb 1, 2027. We think YouTube wants Lite to grow before it raises the full plan again.

What would prove us wrong: a US individual price above $15.99 a month before Jan 1, 2028.

Will YouTube Shorts get longer than three minutes?

We think the Shorts limit stays at three minutes through 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: Shorts went from 60 seconds to three minutes on Oct 15, 2024 (YouTube Shorts), and the 2027 Partner Program rules now treat Shorts and long-form as two separate routes with their own thresholds (Partner Program Changes in 2027). Longer Shorts would blur that line just as YouTube has drawn it, and in our view YouTube would rather a creator post a long video, where ads pay more, than a five-minute Short.

What would prove us wrong: YouTube Help listing a Shorts limit over three minutes before Jan 1, 2028.

How big will Shorts get?

We think YouTube reports more than 250 billion daily Shorts views on average by the end of 2027, up from more than 200 billion today.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: YouTube's press page gives more than 200 billion daily Shorts views on average as of Nov 6, 2026 (YouTube). Shorts now pays creators from a shared pool (Shorts Monetization), Premium Lite is taking ad-free viewing to more countries, and Shorts sits inside the app most people already use for long videos. Growth of a quarter in about a year is what we think a mature product still adding countries and creators can manage.

What would prove us wrong: no YouTube figure of 250 billion or more daily Shorts views published by Dec 31, 2027.

Will automatic dubbing reach every creator?

We think automatic dubbing is on by default for every Partner Program channel by the end of 2027, and that viewers get a setting to always hear the original audio.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: for eligible creators, automatic dubbing is already on by default and runs on every new upload, with older videos dubbed over time (Automatic Dubbing). The cost of a machine dub falls every year, and YouTube's interest is in every video reaching viewers in every language. A viewer switch for the original voice already exists per video; we think complaints will push YouTube to make it a lasting preference.

What would prove us wrong: YouTube Help still limiting automatic dubbing to a subset of partners at the end of 2027.

Will YouTube let viewers filter out AI videos?

We think YouTube adds a viewer setting to see fewer videos labeled as AI-generated or altered by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Long shot. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: creators already have to set "AI use" to Yes for realistic AI content, and the label exists on the watch page (Altered or Synthetic Content); YouTube also stopped paying for mass-produced, templated videos in July 2025 (Inauthentic and Reused Content). Once a label exists, a filter is a small step, and viewers' complaints about low-effort AI videos keep growing. We call it a long shot because YouTube also builds AI tools for creators and would not want its own features to look like something to hide.

What would prove us wrong: no such setting in YouTube's settings or YouTube Help by Dec 31, 2027.

Will the YouTube queue become free on phones?

We think adding videos to the queue in the YouTube phone and tablet apps becomes free for everyone, not only Premium members, by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: on a computer the queue is already free, while on phones and tablets "Play next in queue" needs Premium (Queue). YouTube has moved a Premium feature to everyone before: the sleep timer became free on Oct 15, 2024 (Sleep Timer). With Premium Lite now carrying background play and downloads (YouTube Premium), we think YouTube looks for small extras to give free viewers, and a feature that already works free on a computer is the easiest.

What would prove us wrong: the mobile queue still behind Premium at the end of 2027.

Will likeness detection open to every creator?

We think YouTube's likeness detection, the experimental tool that finds AI copies of a creator's face, opens to every Partner Program channel by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: likeness detection is an experimental tool for creators today, beside a privacy complaint process for anyone shown realistically by AI without consent (Altered or Synthetic Content). In our view YouTube tends to open a creator tool to a small group first and to every partner later, as it now offers thumbnail testing in Studio (Thumbnail Test and Compare). As AI video gets cheaper, we think the pressure to protect the people whose faces it copies only grows.

What would prove us wrong: the tool still limited or experimental at the end of 2027.

Will the new-channel pilot for terminated creators become permanent?

We think the pilot that lets some terminated creators ask for a new channel a year later becomes a standard option for everyone eligible by the end of 2027.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: YouTube Help describes the pilot as gradual, open one year after termination and not for copyright or Creator Responsibility terminations (Channel Termination). In our view a second chance with clear limits is cheaper for YouTube than the appeals it replaces, and its pilots that work tend to become features.

What would prove us wrong: YouTube Help still calling it a pilot, or the option removed, at the end of 2027.

Will public dislike counts come back?

We think not: dislike counts stay hidden from viewers through 2027.

Confidence: Likely. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: YouTube hid them on Nov 10, 2021 and left the count visible only to the creator in Studio (Retired YouTube Features). Five years on it has added other signals instead, such as Hype and Most Replayed, and in our view a company that keeps adding positive-only signals has decided against the negative one.

What would prove us wrong: a dislike count shown to viewers on YouTube's own watch page before Jan 1, 2028.

Will YouTube keep the lead over TikTok and Instagram Reels?

We think YouTube remains the platform that pays creators most reliably for short video through 2027, and that the 2027 Shorts threshold of 10 million views in 90 days pushes small Shorts-only creators to post on TikTok and Reels as well rather than leave YouTube.

Confidence: Possible. Check by: Dec 2027.

Why we think so: Shorts creators keep 45% of their share of a monthly pool filled by ads (Shorts Monetization), and from Feb 1, 2027 they need 10 million qualified Shorts views every 90 days to earn it (Partner Program Changes in 2027). That bar is high for a small creator, and in our view the cheapest answer for one is to post the same clip in several places. YouTube's advantage is that the same channel can also earn from long videos, memberships and Premium revenue, which no short-video rival offers in one place.

What would prove us wrong: YouTube lowering the 10 million Shorts views rule in 2027, or a rival announcing a creator payout program that YouTube creators move to in numbers.

What creators predict

Nilay Patel: platforms will label AI slop and let you avoid it

18:43 On The Vergecast of Dec 14, 2025, The Verge's Nilay Patel predicted that the backlash to AI slop would force the social platforms to label it and filter it, and that "Instagram, YouTube, whoever" will have to say they will detect it, label it "and we're going to let people avoid it if they want to". We think he is half right: YouTube already labels realistic AI content (Altered or Synthetic Content), but a filter to avoid it has not come by Nov 2026, and our own prediction above gives it until the end of 2027.

Check by: Dec 2026.

David Pierce: a new creator platform will rise against the slop

19:54 In the same episode, The Verge's David Pierce predicted that a new creator platform would rise in 2026 as "the human alternative" to YouTube, Instagram and TikTok, while doubting anyone could compete with YouTube economically. We think he is wrong for 2026: in our view no rival has taken a meaningful share of YouTube's creators by Nov 2026, and the Partner Program's 2027 changes keep YouTube the place where long videos pay (YouTube Partner Program).

Check by: Dec 2026.

vidIQ's Jen: the live streaming era beyond gaming

3:43 In vidIQ's Dec 29, 2025 predictions video, Jen predicted 2026 would be "the live stream era", with creators outside gaming streaming lifestyle content and live classes, helped by vertical live streams. We think she is right about the direction, because YouTube's gifts, which started on vertical live streams, now work on horizontal streams too (Gifts and Jewels), a sign YouTube is paying for live as a whole.

Check by: Dec 2026.

vidIQ's Dan: exclusive podcast deals are back

1:54 In the same video, Dan made "the somewhat bold prediction" that the exclusive deals once offered to Twitch streamers would return for video podcasts, pointing to Netflix and iHeartMedia's talks, and that viewers would lose while podcasters won for a while. We think he is wrong about it lasting, as he half expected himself, because a show locked to a paid service loses the free audience that YouTube gives it.

Check by: Dec 2026.

Our take

We think YouTube is still the best place on the internet to build something lasting from video, because a good video keeps earning for years through search and recommendations, which Shorts, TikTok and Reels rarely do (Growing a Channel). In our view the 2027 Partner Program rules are fair to existing partners and hard on newcomers, and we think new creators should aim for the 500-subscriber fan-funding tier first rather than ad revenue (YouTube Partner Program).

We think YouTube Premium is worth it for anyone who watches more than an hour a day, mainly for background play and downloads, and that Premium Lite at $8.99 is now the better deal for people who do not use YouTube Music (YouTube Premium).

We think the most underrated YouTube features are the small ones in the player: comma and period to step one frame, and right-clicking twice to copy a frame (Frame by Frame with Comma and Period, Right-Click Twice to Copy a Video Frame). And we think A/B thumbnail testing is the most useful creator tool YouTube has shipped in years, because it measures watch time rather than clicks (Thumbnail Test and Compare).

Frequently asked questions

Will the YouTube monetization requirements change in 2027?

Yes, YouTube has announced new thresholds for new applicants from Feb 1, 2027. We think they start on that date as announced, without a delay or a lower bar.

Will YouTube Premium go up in price again?

We think not in 2027. In our view the US price stays at $15.99 a month for one person until a rise in 2028, about three years after the last one.

Will YouTube bring back the dislike count?

We think not. Dislikes have been hidden from viewers since Nov 10, 2021, and in our view YouTube has replaced them with other signals rather than plan to bring them back.

Will the YouTube queue be free on mobile?

Not yet: on phones and tablets it needs Premium. We think it becomes free by the end of 2027, as the sleep timer did in 2024.

Is YouTube better than TikTok for creators?

We think so for anyone who wants income that lasts, because YouTube pays for long videos, Shorts, memberships and Premium in one place. For quick reach with short clips alone, we think posting on both is the better plan from 2027.

Sources

• YouTube Partner Program updates for 2027, YouTube Official Blog, Aug 10, 2026
• Upload YouTube Shorts up to three minutes, YouTube Help, read Nov 6, 2026
• The end of OpenAI, and other 2026 predictions | The Vergecast, The Verge, Dec 14, 2025 (video)
• Predicting the BIGGEST CHANGES to YouTube in 2026, vidIQ, Dec 29, 2025 (video)
• NEW: Updates to the YouTube Partner Program, YouTube Creators, Aug 10, 2026 (video)